| Title | PERBANDINGAN ANALISIS TREND PADA PERAMALAN HASIL UNDERWRITING, HASIL INVESTASI, BEBAN USAHA DENGAN LABA BERSIH PT REASURANSI NASIONAL INDONESIA |
|---|---|
| Author | MUHAMAD IBNU FICKAR |
| Abstract | Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membandingkan model analisis trend serta menerapkan model trend terbaik pada peramalan hasil underwriting, hasil investasi, beban usaha dan laba bersih. Data yang digunakan adalah data time series dari tahun 2008 – 2018. Model trend menggunakan variabel terikat Y sebagai hasil underwriting, hasil investasi, beban usaha dan laba bersih serta variabel bebas X sebagai periode dalam tahun. Ada tiga jenis trend yang digunakan yaitu, model linier, kuadratik dan eksponensial. Berdasarkan nilai MSD/MSE terkecil maka diperoleh model trend kuadratik untuk hasil underwriting adalah ?′ = 104.312,80 + 42.922,34? + 4.857,06?2, untuk hasil investasi adalah ?′ = 81.692,87 + 17.527,25? + 605,67?2, untuk beban usaha adalah ?′ = 74.195,70 + 16.044,75? + 1.570,39?2 dan untuk laba bersih adalah ?′ = 113.949,54 + 39.250,55? + 2.764,50?2 sebagai model terbaik. Hasil dari peramalan untuk 5 tahun berikutnya yaitu tahun 2019 – 2023 menunjukkan ratarata peningkatan hasil underwriting sebesar 24%, hasil investasi sebesar 20%, beban usaha sebesar 17% dan laba bersih sebesar 24%. Kata Kunci : Peramalan, Analisis Trend, Mean Squared Deviation/Mean Square Error (MSD/MSE) |
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